Date：2015-03-26
Affected by the economic transformation and the real estate industry downturn, this year the domestic steel demand is weak, the domestic steel prices fell, while the foreign decline range is relatively small, widening spreads and falling prices and promote the China steel accelerated toward the overseas market. 1-10 month national steel exports 73890000 tons, year-on-year growth of 42.2%, the annual export volume of steel is expected to reach 89000000 tons, far more than in 2007 the highest level in history (steel and billets, total exports of 66500000 tons).
According to recent reports, the meeting revealed that China Steel Association authoritativeindustry in foreign countries, the years the government will cancel the steel export tax rebate policy.The China Steel Association in October 29th the press conference also proposed: "the export of low value-added products do not meet the need of current economic development of China, willbring export policy adjustment". All the signs indicate that, China government will make the adjustment to the steel export policy. So, why the adjustment of export policy? How to adjust? How to export after adjustment for the effects? This paper will make a preliminary analysis and prediction of the above.
According to estimates, steel exports this year crude steel equivalent to about 11% of production,compared to the world's major steel exporter, this proportion although not high, but due to a huge base, absolute value be way ahead, ranking second of Japanese exports this year it is estimated that about thirty million tons. Steel export volume of crude steel equivalent Chinese and Americaequivalent yield, than South America, Oceania and Africa total yield is higher 15000000 tons.
Obviously, China steel exports will indeed bring certain impact to the international market.International Steel Association expects global (not including Chinese) steel demand growth rate was 3%, in increments of 25000000 tons, and this year Chinese steel export increment will reach 27000000 tons, that is to say China export of steel not only to meet this year's global (not includingChinese) of all the new requirements, but also have some surplus.
Chinese steel exports has caused foreign steel mills because of dissatisfaction, Chinese not only diverted the foreign steel domestic market share, and foreign steel market share abroad has also been China steel slowly devoured. In response, foreign steel mills continue to propose to the government for anti-dumping investigation China steel, until now, this new foreign anti-dumpingnumber is 20. Because foreign proposed anti-dumping has a certain lag, Chinese steel exports this year increased, is expected next year the new anti-dumping will significantly increase the number of.
It is worth noting that, a few years ago mainly Europe and the United States developed countriestrade protection investigation of Chinese steel, while the last two years, China steel main export area -- Asian countries proposed anti-dumping quantity growth is most rapid, such as South Korea as China biggest steel exporter this year, for the first time against Chinese steel (H steel) the anti-dumping investigation, while Thailand launched the anti-dumping investigation on China boron hrc.Although the foreign anti-dumping exports to Chinese steel has not brought substantial influence,but as more and more anti-dumping investigations, equivalent change qualitative change, exports will be seriously hindered.
The environmental pressure is the internal restrictive factors of steel export. According to estimates,export 89000000 tons of steel, amount of domestic waste water discharge is 65000000 cubic meters, waste gas volume is 140000000 cubic meters, 70000 tons of sulfur dioxide, dust 50000 tons. Recently, Xi Jinping president in APEC speech, big space elaborated Beijing weather, and expressed the hope that "APEC blue" can be maintained, this means that in the future the more serious pollution of iron and steel industry will face more pressure from environmental protection, a large number of low-priced exports of steel products continued to be difficult.
Therefore, its passive let foreign anti-dumping, as the initiative control steel exports, export policy adjustments is imminent. How to adjust the export policy, to abolish export tariffs seems to have can be determined, because Chinese development of iron and steel industry although not to export for the purpose, but also should be appropriate to participate in international market competition, and now Chinese attempting to establish free trade agreements with other countries (FTA), to retain theexport tariffs on steel already be inopportune or inappropriate.
Notably, the main force of boron steel steel exports accounted for nearly half of the country,exports. In September before the boron steel export increment to 11000000 tons this year, the totalexport increment 60%. Although the boron steel for low value added products, but to enjoy the tax rebate, not with the development trend of the domestic steel industry, have also been complaining about such as Southeast Asia and other countries, it has a number of national iron and SteelAssociation or organization in discussions with relevant departments China boron steel exportproblems. Therefore, the abolition of boron steel export tax rebate policy adjustment is the key.
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